Week 16 NFL Picks

1-2 last week. Atlanta was a blowout win and we lost close games in the other two. As for the Vance Joseph 4th down decision to kick a field goal down 4 late, probably only cost us about 20% equity and the Browns outplayed Denver anyway so can't complain too much. In the Seattle game we lost in OT in a game with a missed XP and TD return touchdown against us. Part of football and if our team had been a little better maybe we would have won.

As one would expect the market is pricing the games pretty well by this point in the season and we only have a 2 game card this week (I am laying off the GB game no matter what):

Week 16 Picks

The Pats looked like shit last week so we are of course on them, while we will continue the 49ers fade. To be honest I almost passed the Pats as I think I am over-rating Brady at this point which would push the play down into the 13s where the line is, but with the motivation advantage and coming off a loss with Belicheck as coach I think this is still good enough for a small bet.

As for the other play it does appear like this Mullens can play football but the 49ers still have the worst running game in the league as well as a terrible defense. Kind of hard to believe the Bears could be 11 points better on a neutral field but I just go with what the model says (and it loves defensive talent which the Bears have). Good luck to all this week.