Handicapper's Library

NFL Betting Angles Fact or Fiction #9: Turnover Margin

NFL Betting Angles Fact or Fiction #9: Turnover Margin
In a big win for followers of the picks here, last week the Redskins managed to hold the Buccaneers to only three points, despite giving up 501 tot...

NFL Betting Angles Fact or Fiction - #10: Revenge

In celebration of the Chiefs covering last week, in a game I never would have bet without my "mid-season coach firing" angle, I have decided to sta...

European-Style Sportsbooks: Bad for Everyone

European-Style Sportsbooks: Bad for Everyone
European-style sportsbooks will kill the sports betting market.

Results-Oriented Thinking in NFL Handicapping

Results-Oriented Thinking in NFL Handicapping
In my past job I built econometric models for a bank. One of my bosses was not a true statistician (and neither am I) but had a great theory about ...

Do NFL Teams with the Lead Play Worse in the Second Half?

Anyone who bets NFL halftimes on a regular basis knows that teams with a big lead will be favored by slightly less than if the game is close or tie...

Running Back Injuries in NFL Handicapping

Le'Veon Bell's decision to sit out game 1 of the NFL season led to the inevitable discussion in gambling circles about the impact of running backs ...

NFL Handicapping Fundamentals

´╗┐This is an excerpt from a book I have been working on, although I'm not sure if I'm going to release it at this point. Before we get into detailed...

The Best Sports Handicapping Books

I have spent many hours of my life over the past five or so years searching for every book containing any sort of valuable information on sports ha...

Evaluating a Handicapping Service/Tipster

We sell picks here but understand many people may not be interested in purchasing picks from this site in particular. Perhaps they don't trust a ne...

Closing Line Value

One of the fundamental axioms of sports betting at a professional level is that getting the better of the number; that is, placing your wagers at a...

Regression to the Mean in Sports Betting

In my experience the fundamental basis behind nearly all winning handicapping strategies is a correct understanding of how regression to the mean a...

Understanding Steam Moves in the Modern Era

One of the fundamental winning strategies employed by sports bettors over the past 20 or so years is known as "chasing steam". A steam move usually...