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Free NFL Picks

Week 16 NFL Picks

1-2 last week. Atlanta was a blowout win and we lost close games in the other two. As for the Vance Joseph 4th down decision to kick a field goal d...

Week 15 NFL Picks

1-2 last week. Atlanta lost by 14 in a game with a pick six and missed FG, Denver got blown out in a terrible pick, and Oakland won as a 10.5 point...
Week 14 NFL Picks

Week 14 NFL Picks

Exciting 3-0 last week. Seattle was a blowout, the Chargers came back in an incredible game, and the Eagles injured the other team's starting QB pu...

Handicapping Content

NFL Betting Angles #5: Injuries

NFL Betting Angles #5: Injuries

Every year there are a few teams that manage an impressive injury list by late-season. This year, two examples would be the Redskins and Broncos, w...
Black Coaches YoY Delta ATS Record

NFL Betting Angles Fact or Fiction #6: Black Coaches

The "fade black coaches" angle is well-known across the internet. If you don't believe me, take a look here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum...

NFL Betting Angles Fact or Fiction #7: Motivation

Many bettors like to take motivation into account when making their NFL and college football plays. The most common angle involves betting on a tea...
NFL Betting Angles Fact or Fiction #9: Turnover Margin

NFL Betting Angles Fact or Fiction #9: Turnover Margin

In a big win for followers of the picks here, last week the Redskins managed to hold the Buccaneers to only three points, despite giving up 501 tot...

NFL Betting Angles Fact or Fiction - #10: Revenge

In celebration of the Chiefs covering last week, in a game I never would have bet without my "mid-season coach firing" angle, I have decided to sta...
European-Style Sportsbooks: Bad for Everyone

European-Style Sportsbooks: Bad for Everyone

European-style sportsbooks will kill the sports betting market.
Results-Oriented Thinking in NFL Handicapping

Results-Oriented Thinking in NFL Handicapping

In my past job I built econometric models for a bank. One of my bosses was not a true statistician (and neither am I) but had a great theory about ...

Do NFL Teams with the Lead Play Worse in the Second Half?

Anyone who bets NFL halftimes on a regular basis knows that teams with a big lead will be favored by slightly less than if the game is close or tie...

Running Back Injuries in NFL Handicapping

Le'Veon Bell's decision to sit out game 1 of the NFL season led to the inevitable discussion in gambling circles about the impact of running backs ...