NFL Divisional Round Picks

1-1-1 last week as we took a lousy number here on the blog in the Seahawks game. I front-ran the play at +3 -115 which is not all that far from +2, but was far enough this time. Hope some of the followers got that extra half point. I don't really understand why the Seahawks approached that game the way they did, running up the middle against a good run D/ bad secondary team, but when you bet a team the coaching staff is part of the bet, and they know more about football than I do so perhaps they had their reasons. The Texans were a shitty play and the Chargers were an easy blowout. Lucky to steal a breakeven week.

Divisional Picks

Pretty good card this week as we fade all the teams that won, except LAC where even though the situation heavily, heavily favors NE, LAC are just too good. The bye is super-strong here mostly due to key players getting healthy. Although I don't have hard numbers to show anyone I personally think it is even more important in the playoffs. Just from a pure injury numbers perspective there are more injuries in week 18 than weeks 5-11 meaning more opportunities to heal. In addition, there is no way a marginally injured player ever rests in a playoff game, compared to a regular season game where he might take a week off to get healthy. So there is a larger relative difference in health than a regular-season game.

The Chiefs game in particular is where injuries lead to a big swing as the Colts are down several key players while the Chiefs are (hopefully) getting Berry back. New Orleans is also coming off a double-bye essentially in what is already a huge mismatch. I expect these favorites to roll this week and also kind of like NE but not enough to play here. Good luck to all.