4-2 last week, got screwed in Buffalo and probably got lucky in Kansas City so a wash there. And Oakland, at least we don't have to bet them anymore. My god. As for the Gurley situation I had Rams -1.5 in a teaser and the under. Was very happy to see him go down.
Not much action this week and one of the plays is a marginal/opinion type play in KC -8. This play is solely based on Cleveland firing their coach this week as without the firing we would actually favor Cleveland against this line although not enough to be worth playing.
After adjusting for the strength of the teams up to the point of the firing, since 2012 teams that have fired their coach in the middle of the season have performed an average of 5.5 points worse than expectation. Because the sample size is small and was heavily influenced by one season where the Raiders (lol) fired their coach early in the year then lost by 10.5 points per game thereafter, 5.5 is probably a little inflated and I am going with an impact of 3.5 points above.
The other two picks are fairly standard. I'm not surprised to be on Denver as we bet them every week, and while we aren't usually too low on Houston, they are missing some key names on defense, especially in the secondary which is terrible. In the other game Carolina's offense has been much stronger than one would think, while Tampa Bay is one of those "sneaky bad" teams that has brought games close with late garbage time points and won every close game, making them look a little better than they really are. They are very banged up on defense (although they could be getting McCoy back) and were never good anyway, and I don't think there is too much difference between Fitzpatrick and Winston here.